Next Malaysian general election
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 BackgroundThe ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition was returned in the 2008 general elections with 140 seats, giving it its worst result since independence. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition won 82 seats, thereby denying the BN its two-thirds majority which is required to pass amendments to the Federal Constitution. Pakatan Rakyat also gained five of the 13 state assemblies (has since lost one state assembly-Perak to BN due to defection) and 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats in the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. That was the first major setback of the BN since the 1969 general elections.
 Barisan NasionalFollowing their losses, then Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced on October 8, 2008, he was stepping down as well, resigning his post as United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party leader. A leadership election was held on March 26, 2009, where then Deputy Prime Minister and Prime Minister-designate Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak was elected unopposed as the UMNO party leader. On April 2, 2009, Prime Minister Abdullah tendered his resignation to Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin which was consented. On April 3, 2009, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak was sworn-in as the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia at the Istana Negara, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in front of Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin.
 Pakatan RakyatFormer Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia and the Leader of the Opposition Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, also the head of Pakatan Rakyat was returned to parliament after a ten-year absence following his victory in the Permatang Pauh by-election. His wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail resigned from her Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat in order for Anwar to contest and hence return to parliament. Anwar, the former Deputy Prime Minister was sacked by then Yang di-Pertuan Agong with the advice of then Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad in 1998 after which was sent to jail for corruption and sodomy. Anwar is pushing for a no-confidence motion as his coalition currently has 76 seats. Anwar needs 36 government lawmakers' votes to defect in order to form a federal government.
- ^ Malaysia's leader to step down as party loses clout, (International Herald Tribune), October 8, 2008.
- ^ Badawi to step down as Malaysia's PM in March, (ABC Radio Australia), October 8, 2008.
- ^ Malaysia's Najib 1 step away from premier's post, (Associated Press), March 26, 2009.
- ^ Malaysia's Najib sworn in as new prime minister, (Channel News Asia), April 3, 2009.
- ^ afp.google.com/article, Malaysia's Anwar returns to parliament
- ^ theedgedaily.com, 28-08-2008: Anwar sworn in, appointed as Opposition Leader
- ^ "Anwar rejoins Malaysia parliament, heads opposition". Reuters (Yahoo! News). 2008-08-28. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080828/wl_nm/malaysia_anwar_dc_19. Retrieved 2008-08-28. [dead link]
‘There won’t be a hung parliament’
The 13th general election will deliver a clear winner simply because that's what Malaysians 'would prefer'.
Former Umno vice-president Rahim Tamby Chik has opined that the 13th general election will deliver a hung parliament. I beg to differ. I don’t think we are going to have a hung parliament.
I think it will be a clear cut win either way. Malaysians would prefer a clear cut victory one way or the other.
So here’s my prognosis.
Will the opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, lose its current 82 seats? Very unlikely.
Infact the seats which they lost when some people jumped ship, post-2008, will become theirs again.
What we will see this time around is PKR removing its ‘fluid’ candidates and selecting candidates with firmer constitution. So we won’t see the likes of Zahrain and his types in parliament again.
PKR won 31 seats in the 2008 elections. This time around I see them walking into parliament after the next election with 33-35 seats including wins in Sarawak.
PKR will swipe seats currently held by Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party and Parti Rakyat Sarawak.
More wins for PAS
Lets look at PAS. PAS currently has 23 seats in parliament.
It will retain the many seats it now has in Kelantan. I foresee PAS gaining more seats in Terengganu. PAS will wrest Terengganu from Umno-Barisan Nasional.
PAS will also grab more seats in Kedah. It will win-over seats currently held by MCA and Umno.
PAS can win because it’s organized and is motivated by convictions. This is what sets it apart from Umno.
They are not out for personal glory and gratification. PAS has a number of secular liberals in the party who can attract younger Malay voters.
They will attract the serious thinkers among the younger Malay crowd, excluding those who don’t tweet about football or about Elton John variety.
So my guess is they will increase their parliamentary seats by another seven or eight. PAS will enter the next parliament with around 30-31 seats.
DAP will roar
And now let’s look DAP. DAP will more or less pummel MCA to the ground.
DAP has gained substantial ground with Chinese voters. Chinese voters identify more with DAP than with MCA.
They don’t want a sissy party perceived as easily compromised, intimidated or even bought over to represent them.
They will stake their future in a party that best represents the ‘independence’ streak. DAP is their preferred choice.
So, DAP will take most of the 15 seats the MCA won in the 2008 elections. At the very best, MCA can retain three seats. At worst they will win nothing.
The DAP which now has 28 seats in parliament will increase this by another 12 in the peninsula Malaysia.
Add another eight to nine seats in Sarawak and you have DAP roaring into parliamentary with probably 46-48 seats.
No hung parliament
The newer and younger DAP leadership is taking on Malaysian politics with more finesse and it doesn’t now intimidate modern thinking Malays as the older generation of DAP leaders once did.
And it has shed its umbilical connections with the PAP.
So now, if there are attempts for example to link DAP as a stool or Trojan horse to Singapore’s PAP, such attempts will be laughed at.
Looking at the potential scenario, what we have is a possibility of DAP, PAS and PKR winning 46 seats, 30 and 33 seats respectively. The opposition will now have 109 seats – three seats short of a majority.
And we haven’t included Sabah in this discussion. My believe is that there won’t be a hung parliament.
The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman and a FMT columnist.
‘There won’t be a hung parliament’
Rahim Tamby Chik( RTC) says there are attempts by the opposition parties to invite Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to become PM. This will happen Rahim says, if there is a hung parliament. Such a situation is untenable says Rahim because it will create political instability. So UMNO must work hard to get a 2/3rd majority.
Those were the observations and musings by (RTC) on the political possibilities after the GE13. What is intriguing was his warning that a hung parliament will create instability. I hope we will not be in such a situation. Malaysians would prefer a clear cut victory one way or the other.
I am not going to respond to his nervous prognosis; being more interested on how such a scenario can possibly happen and what are the implications if it does. I don’t think we are going to have a hung parliament. It will be clear cut either way. I am also bemused at his attempt to involve Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in such a scenario.
To qualify as a participant in any future negotiations should a hung parliament comes into being, TRH must be head of a political party. Right now, TRH is in UMNO and doesn’t head a party nor is he a leader of any faction in UMNO. Could Rahim’s advice be another attempt to isolate TRH from UMNO?
TRH is far too principled to agree being appointed as leader of government on a personal to holder basis. He will be a figurehead. Oh, because Tengku has never disowned the ambitions to become PM, comes the answer from UMNO people. So my answer is- why should he not have that ambition? He was cheated to becoming one before. He has all the credentials to become one.
Here is an interesting piece of information. When certain UMNO people wanted to kick out Abdullah Badawi , they approached Tengku Razaleigh for a solution. Their agenda was only one- because of Najib’s hesitation they went to see Razaleigh asking him to stand as UMNO president and Muhyidin as Deputy President. This group was made up of powerful people, united at that time, by their intense disapproval and loathing of Dollah Badawi. My point is this- at that time, they didn’t think it was inappropriate for Tengku Razaleigh to become UMNO president and if he had won, go on to become PM. Tengku’s ambition wasn’t an issue. His age wasn’t an issue. The fundamental objective was to remove Pak Lah.
Why should the opposition parties invite Tengku Razaleigh to become PM, if they could win the elections on their own? PAS has Haji Hadi, DAP has Lim Guan Eng and PKR has Anwar Ibrahim? This assessment presupposes that between the 3, neither one accepts the leader of each party as a future PM. It also assumes further, that Tengku Razaleigh commands a number of elected MPs to give him standing in future negotiations. Where will he get the MPs? Rahim says 20-30 people are being lined up to stand as MPs who are aligned to Tengku Razaleigh. Where are these people? In UMNO? Within the opposition camp?
So now, let us build up a case, why a hung parliament cannot happen. Just for the moment, let’s not talk about how UMNO and BN can lose. Let’s talk about HOW the opposition- DAP, PAS, PKR can WIN. Let’s begin by asking, will the PR lose its current 82 seats? Possible, but very unlikely. The seats which they lost when some people jumped ship, will become theirs again. We won’t see the likes of Zahrain and his types in parliament again.
DAP now has 28 seats in parliament. DAP has gained substantial ground with Chinese voters. Chinese voters identify more with DAP. By and large the Chinese do not require the intervention and involvement of the government to improve their wellbeing. They got to where they are now, largely by their own efforts and independence. They want to preserve and reinforce that independent streak. How best for them to do that? By staking their future in a party that best represents the independence streak. They don’t want a sissy party perceived as easily compromised, intimidated or even bought over to represent them. DAP is their preferred choice.
I mean that is the reason driving Hishamudin pondering a move from Sembrong to Kota Tinggi. To the Chinese in Sembrong, and this doesn’t please me in saying, Hishamudin is irrelevant to them. He knows if he stays in Sembrong, he can kiss his seat goodbye. They want to kick the ass of the man with the monkey grin.
The Chinese are less dependent on the government and by government, I mean the BN. they need champions for other requirements and that they find in DAP. So the DAP will more or less pummel MCA to the ground. They will take most of the 15 seats the MCA won in the 2008 elections. At the very best, MCA can retain 3 seats. The worst case scenario is, MCA wins nothing. The DAP will increase its seats by another 12 in Semenanjung. It gobbles up most of the seats now held by MCA.
Why will DAP win over the MCA? Because the Chinese believe MCA has sold them out. Not necessarily by kowtowing to big brother UMNO over many issues, but by retreating from representing the indomitable spirit of the Chinese. MCA has lost its mandate. That’s how DAP is winning the Chinese over- where MCA failed.
On a more simplistic reasoning, the Chinese who have traditionally supported MCA are asking- how come almost all our Chinese MCA leaders are being persecuted and prosecuted by the Courts once they leave office? How come UMNO leaders who do or are alleged to be doing the same things are not? They know Malay leaders stole and swindled more.
What about the DAP in Sarawak? Generally speaking, the urban seats will be taken up by the DAP. That will be another 8 or 9 seats for the DAP. The seats held currently by SUPP will end up in DAP’s hands. The DAP will get around 20 seats more than they got in 2008. This time around, DAP will be in parliament with probably 46-48 seats.
The newer and younger DAP leadership is taking on Malaysian politics with more finesse and it doesn’t now intimidate modern thinking Malays as the older generation of DAP leaders once did. And it has shed its umbilical connections with the PAP. So now, if there are attempts for example to link DAP as a stool or Trojan horse to Singapore’s PAP, such attempts will be laughed at.
It’s difficult to dislodge PAS from where they are now. Has any elected PAS rep jumped ship? This means, PAS has been careful to select leaders on the basis of each having convictions and intense belief. It will likely do the same thing for the 13GE.
How can PAS win? It’s difficult for its opponent to dislodge PAS in its traditional role as champions for Islam and serving as the emotional anchor for conservative Malays. It will retain the many seats it now has in Kelantan. It will gain more seats in Terengganu which is expected to go back to PAS this time around. Some of the seats in Kedah for example, currently held by MCA and UMNO will be won by PAS. The seat now occupied by MCA’s Chor will be lost to PAS. PAS can win because it’s organized and is motivated by convictions. This is what sets it apart from UMNO.
They are not out for personal glory and gratification. They have got a number of secular liberals in the party who can attract younger Malay voters. They will attract the serious thinkers among the younger Malay crowd who are not included in the tweeting about football or about Elton John variety.
PAS currently has 23 seats in parliament. It will secure a large number in Terengganu, maybe 1 seat in Pahang, 3 in Kedah. My guess is they will increase their seats by another 7-8. PAS will enter the next parliament with around 30-31 seats.
What about PKR? I thought PKR is the weak link in PR. Let’s not forget it won 31 seats in the 2008 elections. Those who jumped ship are either ex UMNO members (that tells us much about the quality and resolve of UMNO members) and those who were selected on the basis of urgency and expedience. The ‘fluid’ candidates will be removed this time around, and it is likely that PKR will select candidates with firmer constitution. PKR will secure a number of seats in Sarawak taking away seats from SPDP and PRS. Baru Bian will spearhead PKR’s drive in Sarawak. I am thinking that PKR will still enter parliament with around 33-35 seats.
Let’s take the worst case scenario. DAP= 46, PAS= 30, PKR= 33. The opposition has 109 seats. They are short of 3 seats to secure the majority.
We haven’t included Sabah in our discussion. With the disenchantment towards Musa Aman, it’s unlikely that UMNO Sabah can retain all its seats it currently has. Unless of course they pay the voters in their constituencies. The non UMNO parties in Sabah are increasingly less enamored with Musa Aman and they can’t defend their positions by sticking around with Mr. Vacuum Cleaner. The opposition will probably gain around 6 seats outright.
To me Sabah is the powder keg. It’s likely to blow in the face of BN. the non-Malay indigenous people of Sabah are likely to pressure their parties to abandon BN. they have had numerous UMNO leaders leading them in the past, all they got was continued marginalization. They don’t see development in their areas. They don’t see electricity and roads and clean water after years of BN rule. It’s therefore possible for us to see 8-10 seats migrating to PR’s camp. We can say that around 14-16 seats from Sabah alone are PR inclined.
My own personal observations about the coming 13th GE is as follows- PR 118-125 seats. UMNO/BN= 98-104 seats.
There won’t be a hung parliament.
The 13th GE: Its an open field.
Dissolution of Parliament in March.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Dissolution of Parliament in March.
Expecting the worst Najib has set March for the dissolution of Parliament, it will be after the passing the bill to remove the Internal Security act.
The bill will have the full support of Parliament, this time around the BN, and in particular Najib, Mahathir Mohammed, and some of their cronies will want it more than anyone else, even more than those who are currently being held by this draconian piece of legislation.
There will be a motion to repeal the ISA in March and depending on the outcome of the elections the new government if it is led by the BN will reinstate the ISA if they win with a clear majority, or the bill may be held in ambiance as it will then be awaiting Royal consent and accordingly it will either receive or not receive Royal consent.
This is the game being played and a plan of this government, fearing that they might be ousted in the next General Elections they are taking all measures to protect themselves. They fear that the armed forces and the police may break ranks and follow the orders of the government of the day, and so in order to ensure that they can use whatever means within their power they may try and retake Parliament by foul means, and if they fail take flight from the country, to do this safely they’ll have to revoke the ISA lest they become victims of their own folly.
An UMNO source says this was the brain child of the Attorney General who himself is afraid of being held accountable should the Barisan lose the next General Elections. It has received the tacit approval of Mahathir and Najib and the possibility of the formation of another National Operations Council (NOC) is very real, the irony is it is being put in place by Najib Tun Razak – like father like son.
The NOC idea is to be the first option should they lose the General Elections.
The NOC idea is to be the first option should they lose the General Elections.
Huge sums of money are being transferred out of Malaysia on a daily basis, it is worst than the Indian Black market, and the only person capable of making such transactions is none other than an Indian who masquerades as a Malay, he has a an entire brigade of money changers working for him, he does not need sophisticated banking systems to take that money out.
The situation is rife the man who said what is happening in Syria, and Egypt cannot happen in Malaysia is now rather quiet, he sees the possibility that it will happen here, the people are fed up, and they want their dignity back.
The people of Malaysia want their country back and in that process there will be assemblies, peaceful or otherwise, no Malaysian rally has been violent, it only became violent because the government made it violent by use of brutal police force, and the people who participated in those rallies were victims of violence. It has been proven in the Tung Shin Hospital incident. It happened time and time again in Malaysia.
Malaysian football crowds were never violent, they shouted they jeered, they cheered but they were never violent, violence is not our way of life and many a foreigner will attest to that. But his government in pursuit of its own agenda are and have proven to be capable of turning rallies violent if it suits them, safety and human life seems to take a back seat when their own interests are involved.
Elections are due after the March sitting of Parliament, a lot of issues need to be ironed out and as Mahathir put it, Najib has done nothing since he came to office, he has been more preoccupied with his foreign travel, his shopping trips for Rosmah, his promotion of Rosmah to first lady and the immense importance he has given her in Malaysian politics that she is sometimes made to look as the defacto minister of foreign affairs.
Whilst Rosmah basks in her popularity, and her ability to appear daily in the press, more often than the Deputy PM and even the PM, in fact more often than any minister and members of Parliament, the Malaysian community and more particularly the Malays are angry at her arrogance, and her lavishness and though many may not be familiar with the famed Maria Antoinette, they are with Imelda Marcos and have drawn a parallel between the two.
In the meantime my good friend Muhydiin is just waiting for the opportune moment to present itself,, he knows he stands on unstable ground at the moment, not because Najib will get him - on that score he is rock solid, but the fear the real fear that Barisan may lose. This has caused his most ardent followers to keep nagging him constantly to go into direct confrontation with Najib, expose him and thereby make himself a hero amongst the Malays.
One UMNO insider says taking on Najib now, is the DPM’s best bet, the time is opportune now, Najib is not popular amongst the Malays and a move this time is a sure win, a win that will make him an UMNO hero and possibly lead to the return of many Malays from PKR.
If however he fails and tht is a remote possibility he can cross over and join the PKR, and that way it will mean “heads I win, tails you lose” to Najib.
Muhydin is a slow mover and in politics the slow movers can’t survive, he has to come out of his shell and go for that brutal blow to Najib if he is to succeed in becoming Prime Minisiter. The PKR will be more than willing to give him that position after a term or two of Anwar at the helm, but as far as UMNO goes he can kiss his chances goodbye there is no way he will get to sit on that chair as it goes right now that place is reserved for Mukhriz Mahahtir, unless Muhydin takes the advice of his followers and goes for on Najib now.
This truly is a case of it's now or never.
This truly is a case of it's now or never.